Are most homes STILL underwater?

Despite all the positive news we've been hearing about real estate and despite the definite rebound that has happened over the past three to four years, I still find myself sitting at a lot of kitchen tables delivering disappointing news to our clients about their home's value.

The Chicagoland real estate market overall hit bottom sometime in 2012 and bounced up after that - but the bounce has been in s-l-o-w m-o-t-i-o-n. While other markets across the country saw an enthusiastic rebound, with inventory levels dipping to as little as one or two months of housing supply and holding there for years, our market has simply returned to a sustainable, balanced state, without ever seeing supply levels significantly lower than normal. As such, our recovery has been a barbecue compared to other metro areas' sear - and by that I mean low and slow.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the most reliable macro-level housing data available, gives us the sobering statistics:
- While many other metro areas have seen prices skyrocket to double-digit percentage gains OVER their pre-recession levels, single family home prices in Chicagoland are still about 14% UNDER their pre-recession peak. Only 19 of 163 ZIP codes tracked in Chicagoland are above their pre-recession peak, and most of them are on the near North side of the city.
- Zero ZIP codes in the South and Southwest suburbs have reached their pre-recession peak. None. That means if you bought a home around the peak of the market or during the downfall, anytime from approximately 2005 through 2010, your home value is likely equal to or less than what you paid unless you've made value-add improvements to the home.

Take a look at the graph below, and click on this tool courtesy of Crain's Chicago Business to look up the graph for your ZIP code:



I tend to focus on the positive in most of what I write and talk about with our clients, and the news isn't ALL bad. We do have sustainable inventory levels, modest price appreciation, rejuvenated new construction activity, and the benefit of mortgage interest rates that are still unbelievably low. I just know there are so many people in our market area who are out there thinking, "Why does it seem like all the good real estate news doesn't apply to me?" and I want to assure you that you're not alone, and it's not you, it's the market.